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	<title>Crowell Roberts Investment Blog &#187; AstraZeneca (AZN)</title>
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		<title>Superior stocks, superior returns.</title>
		<link>http://www.crowellroberts.com/blog/2009/06/superior-stocks-superior-returns/</link>
		<comments>http://www.crowellroberts.com/blog/2009/06/superior-stocks-superior-returns/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Jun 2009 23:53:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Crowell</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Oil Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[America Movil (AMX)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AstraZeneca (AZN)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Novartis (NVS)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telefonica (TEF)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Verizon (VZ)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.crowellroberts.com/blog/?p=63</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Tuesday, June 23, the Dow was down 6% and the S &#38; P 500 1% as we approach the end of the first half. The stocks recommended here have buoyed our portfolios above the herd, with returns close to ten percent for the year-to-date.
]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Those are excellent returns but most investors still raise two questions. How long will it take to regain last year’s losses and is the stock market still a good medium for investors? Nobody knows how much time is needed although the quite natural desire to know this keeps people watching television stock reporters, as well as keeping palm readers in business.</p>
<p>One difficult investment precept is that the price paid for a stock and thus the time required for its “recovery” is largely irrelevant. Buys become history when made and their success depends on future developments. For example, Transocean (RIG-$73 on 6/23) is selling for less than half its 52-week high of $155, near which some investors may have purchased. It will earn over $12 a share this year and next, presenting an unusually low P/E valuation.</p>
<p>Its future stock price movement will depend on many factors, particularly any warming of the prevailing investment mood of fear and of oil price developments. As the leader in deep water oil exploration with 39 ultra-deepwater rigs and 10 more under construction, it owns a profitable spot in the global search for energy.</p>
<p>How long for investors today (or for those who bought at higher prices) to realize adequate returns is unknown, as it is in almost all investment situations. The advantage that most stock investors have over stock traders is putting time on their side; stocks have consistently rewarded patience.</p>
<p>Patience has been sorely tried during the worst recession since the Great Depression. Recovery is underway and the recession will probably end later this year in the sense that the economy will return to positive growth. Unfortunately, many industries like finance, real estate, autos, retail and much manufacturing are scarred so badly that their recovery will lag.</p>
<p>The stock market has already begun to anticipate recovery and seems to be pausing for breath. It will probably need some positive signals from the economy for its next leg up. Funding of the stimulus legislation passed this winter will begin showing up in a few weeks, providing some relief to besieged municipalities and state governments. Employment lags recovery and an increasingly higher unemployment rate will insure continuing government attention.</p>
<p>All these events have left many investors abandoning their decision responsibilities, leaving trillions of dollars parked in money market funds yielding almost nothing. Fear, however, is an emotion that never helps investment returns or anything else. Uncertainty is understandable and caution commendable but calculated risks build larger stock portfolios.</p>
<p>Verizon (VZ-$31), up slightly in a down market after last week’s recommendation, is typical of the larger, moderate growth companies with forward-looking activities that will perform nicely as the economy recovers and investors get their breath back. Yield is 6% and earnings will be steady.</p>
<p>Verizon is strong in the growing wireless market. So is Spain’s Telefonica (TEF-$66). Its stock price was knocked down on concerns about its home market and the EU area in general, making it even more favorably valued than Verizon despite faster growth. The current forecast of $6.85 earnings this year reflects a P/E ratio of 10. It also yields 6%.</p>
<p>Mexico’s America Movil (AMX-$35), an old favorite, is similar. It has 183 million wireless subscribers throughout Latin America. Its stock is priced a bit higher, reflecting faster growth and a purer wireless base. Yield is 5%.</p>
<p>Medical stocks have been underachievers this year but are starting to move up. AstraZeneca (AZN-$44), recommended here on March 8 at $36, continues to improve on all fronts. Swiss-based Novartis (NVS-$42) is similar and a new buy. Yield is 4% and earnings will be a steady $3.50-$3.60 this year, a reasonable valuation for another growing company with staying power. Stocks like these have consistently provided superior returns for patient investors.</p>
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